As for the Surge, it's off. The thing that has happened is that people are being paid off. Those being paid off though do not want the U.S. to prevail. They are using the U.S. as the U.S. is using them. They are being temporarily bought for the sake of the Republican Party during a Presidential-election year. The Sunnis aren't going along with the Shiite-dominated government.
Before the War, Baghdad was 65% Sunni. Now it's 75% Shiite. Now the Sunnis are being paid and armed by the tens of thousands. Some reports say its 70,000. They're going to go along with that for a while. They aren't going to love what America has done to them though.