AP - WASHINGTON –
The startling news that the economy lost 80,000 jobs last month and nearly a quarter-million over the last three months is the starkest signal yet that the country has probably fallen into a recession, with things on the job front expected to get worse.
"All the indicators suggest that we will see even larger job declines in coming months. Businesses are getting nervous and pulling back," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com.
While the downturn is expected to be short and mild, economists are still forecasting the unemployment rate, which jumped to 5.1 percent in March, will climb much higher before the nation's job engine sputters back to life.
Economists are forecasting a jobless rate that will peak at around 6 percent, but probably not until early next year, several months after the recession is expected to end. Analysts said as many as 2 million people could lose their jobs in the current downturn.
...the falling value of the dollar against many foreign currencies is helping to power an export boom, which is benefiting farmers and some segments of manufacturing, particularly airplane makers and factories producing various types of heavy machinery where the United States enjoys a competitive edge.
... Domestic automakers have been laying off workers in the face of slumping sales as the weak economy and soaring gasoline prices cut into demand. General Motors and Chrysler reported U.S. sales were down 19 percent in March compared with a year ago, while sales at Ford fell by 14 percent.
Gault said he expected a mild recession that will end when tax rebate checks are spent this summer. He said he wasn't looking for as big a rise in unemployment as the 2001 downturn because companies have not added as many workers to their payrolls during the current expansion.
"We think companies are starting from a leaner position so they won't have to lay off as many people," he said.
RLCC Comment: The economists are selling voodoo. The fact is that the housing downturn and the rising gas prices are just going to have a longer term negative impact than they are claiming. They been trying all along to downplay the coming recession. They're trying to talk their way through it. They're trying to convince people not to tighten their belts and to keep spending. It won't work though.
It's true that people won't stop spending altogether, but the truth is that there must be a fundamental reformation of the economic system. There needs to be a complete transformation into a wholly different economic system. This current system that is based upon selfish dog-eat-dog is just devouring faster than it will ever create. That's its nature. It's a beast. It's the beast. It has to go. There's no other choice but extinction. Either humanity becomes unselfish or it goes. It's call the rule of existence on this plane.
, obtained via: , April 7, 2008, 12:35am