Well, the truth of the matter is that the whole world is compartmentalized with an elite struggling to hold onto the reins. They can't do it. It won't last.
China is being beaten up over refusing to allow their currency to float. They were beaten up over all the defective goods they've been producing. It could happen again in spades. There is a movement for U.S. tariffs if China doesn't bend. China has been up and coming, but it is by no means a match yet. They didn't do themselves any favor by making public calls within China for China to attempt to rival the U.S. militarily and imperially. They are playing right into the hands of Americans who have wanted to hit China from space before China gets too much of a foothold.
Japan has been taught a lesson regarding Toyota.
Greece and the other PIGS are being used to depreciate the Euro to stave off the French/Russian/Chinese move for a new global reserve currency(s).
NATO is still of great concern in Europe. There are still Atlanticists despite French hatred of it. If the U.S. pulled back, the Russians would surge due to oil and gas, etc.
Iran is a huge issue. The Zionists are blowing it from the American military's perspective.
The variables are beyond the ability of supercomputers to model. I've only mentioned a few.