I just read this:
What makes one avalanche much larger than another has nothing to do with its original cause, and nothing to do with some special situation in the pile just before it starts. Rather, it has to do with the perpetually unstable organization of the critical state, which makes it always possible for the next grain to trigger an avalanche of any size.
I'm sorry, but if I put this "delicately," it will not have sufficient impact: That quoted statement is just astoundingly shortsighted.
"...nothing to do with its original cause...." What's the "its" there? That's not the strikingly shortsighted part though. This is: "...has...nothing to do with some special situation in the pile just before it starts."
The exact aspect of every variable concerning the pile will exactly predict exactly what adding another grain of sand of an exact type and in an exact way will do. In other words, given the exact same setup, the exact same avalanche will occur over and over and over. That's science and logic. If one wants to introduce God changing things against the "laws of physics" into the equation, well, God will inform you if you will listen, hear, and understand, that God is then a variable.
There is no chaos, only ignorance.
Stability does not lead to instability. Inherent instability within the whole is its own source. In fact, the term whole is misapplied or misdefined by the usage or context there. A true whole is indivisible. A true whole has zero instability and will never experience instability.
What is wrong with the political economy of the Earth is lack of cooperation for the sake of wholeness. That lack is due to ignorance. When someone says that he or she just doesn't want to cooperate and share, etc., that one is speaking from ignorance, which may also be called confusion. Confusion there reintroduces the notion of chaos, and we come full circle showing the inappropriate use of the language that causes what appears to many to be a perpetual "human nature" of selfishness.
It is not human nature, but learned ignorance: conditioned, literally abused into the person. The abuser and the abused who do not overcome, are separated off from the true whole, which is God in my book.
There are then two languages running which don't really parallel each other. One is a continuous spectrum running from left to right and top to bottom. The other is a split between good and evil. The statement "nothing to do with its original cause" is of the former. It is shortsighted.
This is why Europe is facing an economic crisis. This is why the Earth is in turmoil.
The bankers want their interest. Europe needs a debt-free political economy. Germany is in a position to make that happen simply by creating a debt-free currency and paying off all debts. The German leadership is myopic. It currently lacks the vision and the fortitude to go from where it is to where it needs to go.
During a crisis, the old law is excelled and a new, enhanced, better understanding of the law comes into being provided the leadership brings forth net bounty — no excuses, no "externalities," no unforeseen and negative consequences, no negative consequences, period.
That is the heart and soul of Christianity.
The German leadership are the steward-servants, the caretakers of the house, the estate, the nation, and even Europe and the world if that leadership will set the proper example. The same applies to leadership everywhere. Leadership is also only as able for others as those others are fellow servants, all.
Is the world savable? Can human action do it? The world is more than what meets the eye. I know human action can do it because Jesus has said, "bring forth." Everything else is an unacceptable excuse.
"...a good tree bringeth not forth corrupt fruit...." — Jesus Christ
The best Risk Management is universal unselfishness, harmlessness. It's healing.
Hyman Minsky worked within the mixed-economic model. We must break out of that or fail. We must move beyond a debt culture and society/system altogether or fail. Ultimately, we (the remnant of humanity) don't fail; therefore, it is a matter of when rather than whether. The timing is when we do it. Which generation is this? Failure or success of this species is a freely available choice.